A Linn County race that could change the balance of power in the Iowa Senate is close enough it could go either way, but polling results released Sunday night indicate Democrats are likely to retain their majority.

Liz Mathis

The race for the vacant Iowa Senate 18 seat is close, but it looks like Democrat Liz Mathis will defeat Republican Cindy Golding in the Nov. 8 special election, according to a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling.

Based on PPP’s survey of 878 likely voters from Nov, 4-6, Mathis leads Golding 52 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3 percent.

If Mathis wins, Democrats will retain a 26-24 majority in the Senate, which the party and its allies see as a firewall against the GOP-controlled House and a Republican governor.

Cindy Golding

If Golding wins, the Senate would be split evenly between the parties. Republicans believe that would provide opportunities to at least begin discussion of House-passed legislation that is stalled in the Senate.

One issue sure to be the topic of discussion would be a House resolution with bipartisan support to allow Iowans to vote on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. The Iowa Supreme Court struck down the state ban on same-sex marriage in 2009.

It has not been debated in the Senate where Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, has vowed to block any action on the measure that appears to have bipartisan support.

However, the PPP poll suggests voters don’t see the election that way. Mathis is leading even though 46 percent of the district’s voters say same-sex marriage should be illegal. Just 42 percent think it should be legal. Only 11 percent of those polled said same-sex marriage was their most important issue. While 30 percent said there should be no legal recognition of same-sex couples, 66 percent supported either gay marriage or civil unions, PPP said.

Gov. Terry Branstad

If the election is not about same-sex marriage, Dean Debnam, PPP president, suggested voters may be sending GOP Gov. Terry Branstad a message. His approval rating in the district — where there are 249 more Republicans than Democrats — is only 39 percent with 42 percent disapproving of him.

A Mathis win could indicate voters don’t want to increase his power, Debnam said.

President Obama

The poll found President Barack Obama faring worse than Branstad. His approval rating in the district, which includes parts of Marion, Cedar Rapids and Walford as well as Fairfax, Palo, Hiawatha, Robins, Alburnett, Center Point, Walker, Central City, Coggon and Prairieburg, is only 37 percent with 51 percent disapproving of him. He carried the district by a wide margin in 2008.

PPP, a Democratic polling company, said if Mathis wins it would show Democrats can win even in a district where Obama’s numbers are bad enough to suggest he might be a problem for down-ballot Democrats in 2012.

Although voters in the district are split 44 percent to 44 percent on whether they would rather Democrats or Republicans have control of the Senate, Mathis is winning among those who are planning to vote Nov. 8. Another key is that she appears to be picking up 16 percent of the GOP vote, which helps her make up for Golding’s 50 percent to 45 percent advantage among independents – the largest bloc of voters.

The polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Nov. 8. Absentee ballots returned by mail must be postmarked no later than Nov. 7. On Election Day a voter may hand-deliver his or her absentee ballot to the Linn County Auditor’s Elections Office, 2500 Edgewood Rd. SW, Cedar Rapids, until 9.m.